The Brand is Not Enough

You may remember that back in May Jamie Oliver’s restaurant chain – Jamie’s Italian – went into administration, putting over 1,000 jobs at risk. I was reminded of that this week when I saw that, little more than two months later, Master Oliver has moved into a new £6m mansion

I’ll leave you to judge what his former employees may think of that…

At the time the restaurants went into administration I read an article quoting Wetherspoon’s boss Tim Martin. His message was blunt and uncompromising: many of the casual dining sector’s recent failures had “thought they were so groovy the brand would do the work for them.” 

He added, “I think a lot of the casual dining sector and some of the pub companies [were] seduced by the drug of branding. Jamie Oliver was the ultimate brand [but] there were some others out there as well. It’s not about a brand, as someone told me 30 or 40 years ago. If you run a pub or restaurant it’s a trade and you have to develop the individual aspects of the business as time goes along.” 

Unquestionably the casual dining sector was (and remains) very, very competitive – we’ve all eaten at Strada, Prezzo and Byron and they’ve all had to close sites – but I have a lot of time for Tim Martin’s view. 

Yes, we’re all creating a brand but, increasingly, the brand is not enough. Nowhere near enough. 

Look at the wreckage of the UK high street. June was a washout, with total sales decreasing by 1.3%. Boots is planning to close 200 stores in the next 18 months, M&S is undoubtedly considering a similar list and it is widely forecast that online sales will overtake retail some time in the next decade.  

Boots and M&S were two of the best known names and most-respected brands in the country. But however good your brand is, however well-known your name is, two facts are inescapable. 

The world is changing. Yes, I’ve written that a hundred times – but it bears repeating. 

What happened on July 5th1994

Amazon was founded: just 25 years ago and it has made Jeff Bezos the richest man in the world and helped to create thousands of businesses – but it has done lasting and irreversible damage to the UK high street and shopping malls across America.

Secondly, the world is far more competitive than it ever was and customer loyalty is fast disappearing – if it hasn’t gone already. 

…Which takes me back to Tim Martin. “We’re not a brand,” he says. “We’re only as good as our next pint.” Quite right: as he says, if you follow that philosophy you won’t get everything right but you’ll start to get a few things right. 

Let me give you another example. No company – historically – has relied on the ‘power of the brand’ more than Kraft Heinz. Heinz itself, TGI Fridays, Philadelphia, Maxwell House, Lea & Perrins… The list is endless. 

But when Kraft Heinz reported its Q4 earnings recently, it lost more than $16bn (around £12.5bn) in market value, despite its backers (including Warren Buffet) succeeding in cutting $15bn in costs. Why? Because the big brands are falling out of favour. Because Google searches for terms in the vegan, low-sugar and low-carb categories respectively increased by 64%, 36% and 18% year on year for the 12 months ending in April 2018. 

Because – as I wrote above – the world is changing and becoming more competitive. Most of us will now pay a little bit more for our tomato ketchup, cheese and coffee if we know where it has come from and we know it is ethically sourced. 

So what about the Alternative Board UK? Are we, to use Tim Martin’s phrase, ‘only as good as our last pint?’ 

I think the answer to that is yes. We are far from the only peer coaching organisation in the UK. I believe passionately that we are the best by some distance – but I am very conscious that we can never let our standards slip. That we must consistently deliver to our members and that we at head office must consistently deliver to our franchisees. 

Yes, it’s my job as the MD to see the big picture. It’s also my job to make sure that excellence is consistently – and remorselessly – delivered: that the next pint is even better than the last one…

(One footnote – actually, one still quite sore footnote… A very big ‘thank you’ to everyone who supported us last weekend on our Three Peaks Challenge. All of us at head office were hugely grateful for all the support we received. The full report will be in the next blog…)


TAB UK: Ten Very Successful Years

It’s now nearly ten years since I pushed breakfast round my plate in Watford Gap services and decided something had to change. 

…And I’ve no doubt that at the same time several business owners up and down the UK were thinking, ‘I need someone to share these problems with. I need someone to bounce these ideas off. I need someone who understands me. Not my bank manager. Not my accountant. Someone who truly understands what it’s like to run your own business.’ 

What none of us knew was that the answer was just around the corner. Something that gave me exactly the change and the opportunity I was looking for: something that answered every question any entrepreneur could have. As I pushed my breakfast round my plate, as the entrepreneurs looked for someone who understood, Paul Dickinson and Jo Clarkson were founding TAB UK. 

Ten years later Monday this week found almost everyone in the TAB UK family – about 40 of us, plus another 15 friends, advocates and supporters – gathered in Manchester to celebrate our 10th birthday. Paul and Jo officially launched the company on 5 June 2009. 

I joined a few months later on 24 October 2009 and, over the years, franchisees and business owners up and down the country have added their expertise and experience to the team. 

But – you all know the story by now – Paul wasn’t with us to celebrate. It’s now more than a year since he died and I still find myself thinking, ‘Ah, I must tell Paul that.’ I’m not sure the feeling will ever fade – and what most certainly will never fade is the legacy Paul left us, and the company he and Jo created. 

I looked around the team on Monday night – franchisees, the head office team, support staff – and I could not have been more proud. Why has TAB UK been successful? A good part of the answer was right there in the room: the people. I’ve worked for a few companies and I have never – by some distance – worked with a more focused, determined and talented team. 

But however good the people, the idea has to be right as well. And TAB meets a simple need: the need to belong. As I sat in Newport Pagnell an entrepreneur sat in his office and wondered where he could find the right support network. 

We all know Maslow’s hierarchy– physiological needs like food, water and warmth at the bottom, then the need for safety and security. But after that comes the need to belong – friendship and relationships. 

For the majority of entrepreneurs, the need to belong means the company of other entrepreneurs. I’ve written many times about the loneliness of the entrepreneur and that’s especially true in SMEs where there is a very good chance that the boss knows everyone – and feels personally responsible for them. 

There’s another basic human need – and I guess it is also part of Maslow’s ‘need to belong.’ That’s the need to have people you can trust: people with whom you can be totally honest, and who in turn will be totally honest with you. 

Sometimes that’s a hard sell for a franchisee, and it’s a tough concept for a business owner to get his head round. ‘You’ll be sitting at a boardroom table with half a dozen business owners and you’ll be able to tell them everything.’ 

‘Yeah, right. There’s simply no way on earth I’m telling other business owners my profit margins. Or my plans for the future. Or my problems…’ 

It’s wonderful to see the trust and loyalty develop in a TAB board – and I know from my overseas colleagues that the same is true in the 20 countries in which TAB now operates. It’s not just North America and Western Europe: the need to have a support network and to find other entrepreneurs you can absolutely trust is just as relevant in Mexico, Israel and India. 

So what of the next 10 years for TAB UK? 

There are any number of things we’d like to achieve, not least filling in the geographical gaps. We have no-one in the Leicester area. That extends down the M1 corridor. Given that it was a breakfast in Watford Gap services that ultimately led to me joining TAB, I find it particularly galling that I can’t stick a metaphorical coloured pin just above Northampton. 

We’ll also need to deal with the changing aspirations of both our franchisees – many of whom are now building significant businesses that they might want to sell or split – and our TAB Board members. We’re already seeing some early members of TAB starting to exit their business and that trend is bound to accelerate. I’m absolutely certain that TAB members who do sell or pass on their businesses will have a far better exit strategy in place than the vast majority of entrepreneurs. 

…And of course, we’ll also need to deal with what Harold Macmillan famously called, “Events, dear boy, events.” The winds of political and economic change will continue to blow. Goodness me, ten years from now Brexit might even be settled and we could have a stable government. 

But, whatever happens, our members will react as they always do. By getting on with it. 

Yes, there was some uncertainty in the period leading up to March 29th but when that deadline came and went most people simply saw it as a signal to crack on. There was no point delaying plans indefinitely, and many TAB members are now taking on more staff. It’s certainly a trend we’re following at head office, as we’ll move from six to eight in the next month. 

The willingness of our members to expand and invest in their businesses – irrespective of the current turmoil – reflects a real confidence. It’s an inner strength that comes from knowing your business is on the right track, and that you’ve got exactly the right support in place. That you’re surrounded by people you can trust and that they’re honest enough and wise enough to give you exactly the advice you need. In short, that you’re part of TAB UK. 

Here’s to June 2029…

Opposites Attract – and Succeed

There’s a first time for everything on the blog – so it’s time to talk about burritos. 

Photographer Jennifer Causey, Food Stylist Chelsea Zimmer Prop Stylist Claire Spollen

Yes, that burrito, one of the staples of any good Tex-Mex restaurant. 

Specifically, I want to talk about a London burrito chain called Chilango.

A couple of months ago I stumbled across an article in City AM that discussed Chilango and their fundraising – what was termed the ‘Burrito Bond.’ 

The owners of the business had raised money by selling the £500 bonds, which paid an 8% rate of interest, as well as giving bondholders bonus rewards of free food. 

It sounds like a great idea. Would I buy a £500 Star Inn the City bond if it gave a similar return? Yes, almost certainly. 

Unsurprisingly, the Burrito Bonds smashed their targets, raising over £1m in the first 24 hours and a total of £3m. At a time when it is commonly acknowledged that there’s too much competition in the restaurant market (witness the recent fate of Jamie’s Italian) that is a real vote of confidence from Chilango’s fans and customers – who, very clearly, will now be ambassadors for the brand. 

It is also a vote of confidence in the management team. They must have spent years in the industry before they launched Chilango. They probably trained with some of the biggest and best names in the casual dining sector.

Except they didn’t…

Eric Partaker and Dan Houghton were working together at Skype when Partaker – from Chicago and not being able to find a high class burrito in London – suggested they go into business together. 

You might think that Skype isn’t ideal training for the food business, but Partaker argues that there’s an important parallel. “VOIP had existed for ten years before Skype’s arrival, so why did it succeed? Because it focused on an awesome product and wrapped it in a brand that people loved.” 

But in the same interview he makes what I think is an even more important point – and one that I think will be increasingly relevant in today’s tech-driven business world. 

“Dan and I worked super-well together,” he says. “We were very, very lucky in that on psychometric tests we test quite oppositely to each other. The partnerships that don’t work out, I think, are the ones where the people are too similar. That really worked in our favour at both Skype and Chilango.”

That’s the real point I want to make this week. We are living in an era where business is becoming ever more dominated by tech. The skills that are necessary for tech success are probably not the skills that the traditional entrepreneur possesses – and finding your ‘perfect partner’ is going to become increasingly important. 

A couple of weeks ago I read this article– splendidly titled, The Rise of the Nerds. It makes that point about tech very clearly. CEOs and MDs are becoming more tech focused than they’ve ever been. More CEOs/MDs have a background in technology and those that don’t clearly need to know about it. But the majority – and that certainly includes me – are never going to be experts. 

We may pay far more attention to tech than we ever did, we spend a lot more time reading about it – but we are never going to do the coding. 

And that’s why partnerships are becoming more and more relevant, but – as this week’s title suggests – finding someone with an opposite set of skills and a different personality to you is going to be crucial. 

I’m currently reading The People vs. Tech by Jamie Bartlett. It’s a slightly dystopian view of the battle between the internet and democracy, with one of the chapters entitled Driverless Democracy: what happens to citizens when AI takes all the work. 

Leaving aside the argument that I don’t believe AI will take all the work, Bartlett illustrates his idea by discussing the US trucking firm Starsky Robotics. Go ahead, take a ride in one of their self-driving trucks…

In an exact parallel with Chilango, Starsky is run by Kartik Tiwari (the tech/AI guy) and Stefan Seltz-Axmacher, the serial entrepreneur. ‘Neither,’ as Bartlett points out, ‘specialise in trucking.’ 

…But they are unquestionably ‘disrupting’ the trucking industry. Like Chilango, it’s starting to seem that it’s not previous experience that’s a pre-requisite for success, but finding the right – and very different – partner.

That’s certainly how it is at TAB UK. Mags and I are complete opposites (I may as well pre-empt the inevitable comments: she’s organised, focused and has no interest in golf…) and so are our two managers, Suzanne and Rena. The key point for any successful working relationship is to recognise your different strengths – and make sure the right person is doing the right job. And as always, effective communication is the key. 

Anyway, all this writing about food – especially first thing in the morning – has made me hungry. In fact, what better way to start your day than a breakfast burrito

Is Compromise a Dirty Word?

With the resignation of Theresa May and the European elections, it’s impossible to start this week’s post anywhere other than in the corridors of power. 

Obviously I’m being sarcastic when I use the word ‘power.’ If anyone is in power in the UK – or has the slightest idea what’s going on, or what is likely to happen – then please let me know. 

Like everyone else in the business community I am tempted to have an 800 word rant about our politicians. The words ‘whelk’ and ‘stall’ would feature. As would a celebration in a brewery. But, I must remember I’m an adult. So what business insights can we rescue from the ashes? 

One comment – which I have edited slightly so as not to offend you, gentle reader – summed up the current malaise: 

Having got into this mess because of dithering, they are now dithering over who is going to oversee the next bout of dithering. 

In her farewell speech Theresa May clearly did not see it as dithering. She made much of the need to compromise and – apparently quoting a late constituent – said, “Compromise is not a dirty word.” 

Is that right? After all, our other female Prime Minister had a rather different view: “If you spend too long in the middle of the road you’ll be hit by traffic coming in both directions.”

So what’s the position in business? Is compromise the answer? Or is Theresa May wrong and ‘compromise’ really is a dirty word. 

In the early days of this blog I would occasionally write that ‘the job of a leader is to lead.’ Now – especially when I’m discussing politics – I seem to write it in every other post. 

But it is – and sometimes leadership makes compromise impossible. Stephen King may have been talking about his writing but the comment applies equally to a business leader: ‘You cannot please all the people all the time. You cannot even please all the people some of the time. The best you can hope for is to please some of the people, some of the time.’ 

So do real leaders ever compromise? 

Of course they do. Sometimes there’s a completely stalled situation which can only be solved by a compromise. Sometimes feelings are so entrenched that you need a compromise to allow both sides to save face and – at least in the short term – lower unrealistic expectations. And sometimes you just need a short-term win, something that will increase motivation and create some mutual trust. 

But in my experience, solutions that come through compromise are rarely long-term or lasting. By definition, a compromise is not a clear vision. It is rarely greeted with enthusiasm by either side. And the problems you solved with the compromise always seem to have a way of creeping back. 

If real leaders do compromise, they always do it from a position of strength. They do not walk into a negotiation and say, ‘We’re prepared to give in on this, this and this. Now can we compromise?’ 

So where does all this leave our politicians and – by extension – the country they are supposed to be governing? 

I don’t often read Conservative Home, but MEP Daniel Hannan summarises the current Catch-22 very neatly: ‘We (the Conservatives) cannot face the electorate before leaving the EU. But we might not be able to leave the EU without an election.’ 

What he doesn’t say, of course, is that if last Thursday’s results were repeated in a General Election, it would be Prime Minister Farage taking the UK out of the EU. 

When a business is in trouble – and the Conservative Party is a business, whose aim is to win elections – then it needs immediate action.

Unfortunately, that’s exactly what we’re not going to get. No new leader chosen until July, everyone on holiday in August, the party conference season… 

There will be barely five weeks to negotiate any deal, always assuming that the EU is prepared to move from its current, very entrenched, position of ‘no renegotiation.’ 

I wrote about Theresa May and her indecision on Friday 22ndMarch. At that time everything was going to be settled by June 30th. Now we’re looking at a date four months after that, with every possibility that the Hallowe’en deadline will be extended. 

That’s a dreadful failure of management and competence. But above all it is a stark illustration of what happens when a leader fails to lead and fails to communicate a vision. 

Somehow, from somewhere a leader has to emerge. He or she will have to take some very tough decisions. And compromise – the desire to please all the people – will need to be the first casualty. 

Want to Grow your Business? Do Less

The blog speaks, Wall Street trembles! And maybe profit does matter after all…

Two weeks ago I discussed Uber’s forthcoming IPO: 

Early estimates of $120bn have been scaled back to $90bn. But that’s £70bn – or more than 15 times the value of Marks and Spencer’s which, despite its recent problems, still made a significant profit in its last six months’ trading. 

But now Uber says it ‘may not achieve profitability.’ The company says that annual sales rose to $11.2bn and losses narrowed to $3bn. But, it warned, it expects operating expenses to “increase significantly.” 

In the event, even that lower estimate was reduced. With Uber drivers going on strike a few days before the IPO the company was initially valued at $82bn – only for the shares to fall 7% on the opening day. They have subsequently fallen even further – although that might have rather more to do with the sudden re-escalation of the US/China trade dispute than a blog written in Harrogate…

These are turbulent times, both in the UK and the wider world. Yet these are the times in which we have to build our businesses – but at the same time, keep our work/life balance well and truly balanced. 

One man who has unquestionably built a successful business is Jack Ma, the co-founder of China’s Alibaba group and estimated to be worth $40bn. 

Like many successful entrepreneurs, Jack Ma seems to have been unemployable: he was rejected by the police and was the only one of 24 applicants to be turned down by KFC. So he started his own business…

That’s great – but recently Jack Ma has been espousing the benefits of what’s termed ‘996.’ If you haven’t heard of it, 996 is simple – it’s China’s culture of working from 9am to 9pm, six days a week

“If you want to build a great company,” he says, “You have to work very hard. You have to suffer terrible things before you become a hero.” It is, apparently, a ‘blessing’ for his staff to work 72 hours a week. And he’s not alone: excessive working hours are also championed by Elon Musk of Tesla. 

You won’t be surprised to hear that they’re not championed by Ed Reid of TAB UK. Working 72 hours a week can never be a ‘blessing’ for you, your family or your staff. Throwing hours at a problem is almost never the way to solve it. Thinking ‘if I just spend more time…’ is nearly always one of the biggest mistakes an entrepreneur can make. 

Rather than Jack Ma, I prefer to look at a different example. Oscar Pierre set up a small shopping service in Barcelona in 2015. Now the company, Glovo, operates in 124 cities, employs 1,000 staff and has 1.5m shoppers. A shopping service was hardly a ground-breaking idea, even in 2015 – but by anyone’s standards that is a highly impressive growth rate. How has Oscar done it? Simple: as you’ll see in this short clip, he’s a firm believer in delegating. 

In fact, Oscar believes in delegating everything. As he says right at the start of the clip, “Make sure you walk out of all the meetings without anything assigned to you.” 

He makes a great point. If you don’t delegate you end up with such a long list of tasks and to-do’s that you become what he describes as ‘the bottleneck of your company.’ Rather than speeding things up, by taking on too much you slow things down. 

Now he says, he does the things which only a CEO can do. Everything else is done more effectively and more efficiently, while he has time to think about medium and long term strategies. The absolute opposite of ‘throwing hours at the problem.’ 

As you’ll all know, that exactly mirrors the TAB philosophy – and it’s put Oscar Pierre on Forbes’ list of 30 under 30 for Europe. 

So how do I measure up? Apart from being just a tad over 30…

With a team of six at head office it would be impossible for me to delegate everything except the ‘only I can do that’ stuff. Clearly, the boss has to be seen to be working – but I do make sure that the ‘only Ed’ stuff is right at the top of my list. And as the team grows, so I will steadily delegate more and more. 

Speaking of which, the team is growing. We’re increasing our numbers from six to eight, with one of the new people handling our every-increasing admin. Part of defining the role was to say to everyone ‘what things are you doing that aren’t core to your role, and can you delegate them?’ That effectively wrote the job description: he or she can look forward to an interesting and varied workload…

When you’re starting out, delegation is hard. You can almost certainly do whatever-it-is-you’re-delegating better and quicker yourself. But you have to let go: you have to give your team the chance to grow and – as Oscar Pierre says – ultimately your job is to do the things that only the CEO can do. 

In the long term you’ll do more by doing less. Delegation is an absolutely essential part of building your business… 

Does Profit Matter Any More?

That seems a ridiculous headline. Of course profit matters. Of course profit will always matter. Without your business making a profit, how are you going to pay the mortgage? Not to mention all the other mortgages that now depend on you.

But bear with me. I think there are some worrying straws in the wind… 

Flipping briefly through the news headlines on Wednesday lunchtime two stories struck me. 

This month will see the Wall Street debut of Uber, which is generally expected to be valued at $90bn – that’s around £70bn. But Uber – as the eager shareholders queue up – now says it ‘may never make a profit.’

Meanwhile here in the UK, hapless Transport Minister Chris Grayling has cancelled the contracts with the ferry companies that he’d put in place in case of a No Deal Brexit. The cost to the taxpayer? Just £50m…

Uber, Slack and Pinterest 

Uber was founded in March 2009. We’ve all taken an Uber, we all jealously guard our 5* – or close to 5* – passenger rating. To say that the company has ‘disrupted’ the taxi and private hire industry is one of the world’s greatest understatements and its IPO has been long awaited. Early estimates of $120bn have been scaled back to $90bn. But as above, that’s £70bn – or more than 15 times the value of Marks and Spencer’s which, despite its recent problems, still made a significant profit in its last six months’ trading. 

But now Uber says it ‘may not achieve profitability.’ The company says that annual sales rose to $11.2bn and losses narrowed to $3bn. But, it warned, it expects operating expenses to “increase significantly.” 

Meanwhile, shares in Pinterest – best described as a ‘social scrapbook’ – soared 28% on its first day of trading, valuing the company at $16bn. The good news is that last year losses at Pinterest fell to $62m, down from $181m two years previously. But the company is heavily dependent on advertising and warned that a downturn in the economy could harm it. In fact, Pinterest warned that it would “incur operating losses in the future and may never achieve or maintain profitability.” 

And then we come to Slack. Most of us have used – or seen someone use – Slack, which does a handy job of replacing intra-office e-mail. What do you know? Slack is filing for an IPO and expects to be valued at $7bn. The good news is that revenue is growing rapidly – up 82% to $400m in its latest financial year. But is it making a profit? What do you think? Losses for the last year were $139m. Like so many tech firms, Slack is spending money to make money. Or to drive revenue growth…

No wonder they’re called unicorns 

As many of you know, a ‘unicorn’ is the term applied to a tech start-up that’s valued at a billion dollars. A unicorn is also a mythical animal and you just have to wonder if some of these valuations have far more to do with myth than reality. 

Call me old-fashioned but I thought the purpose of a business was to make profits? To do it ethically, to give back to the local community, to grow the people within your company: but at the end of the day have the bottom line in black, not red. Damn it, in the olden days you bought shares – invested in companies – because they made a profit and paid a dividend to their shareholders. 

But increasingly the businesses that make the news seem to be valued on fashion and potential. On market share or revenue growth or potential earnings in 2023. And I think that’s a worrying trend…

A short detour into the public sector

At the beginning of last year, Carillion collapsed. Despite the warning signs, Government ministers continued to ply it with contracts. The inevitable eventually happened – and when Carillion went bust it owed money to 30,000 small businesses. 

Now we have Crossrail delayed until 2020 at the earliest and a massive overspend is looking far more likely. I doubt there is a person reading this blog who expects HS2 to be delivered on time and within budget. Maybe there was a reason HS2 hired 17 PR agencies

And as I mentioned above, Chris Grayling has just cancelled the No Deal contracts with the ferry companies, landing the taxpayer – you and me – with a £50m bill for which we have received nothing at all. 

Why all this matters

As every single member of TAB UK knows, Tesco do not accept market share or your projected 2023 earnings in exchange for bread and cheese. Neither do projected earnings pay wages. 

Why does profit matter – apart from the fact that it buys bread and cheese and pays wages? It matters because profit is how you keep score. It’s how you say, ‘we’re doing this right: ‘we’re doing it better than last year’ and ‘we’re competent to run the business.’  

When Mags and I were buying TAB UK the organisations who supplied the funds were rightly concerned with two things. Could we service the borrowing – that is, could we generate the necessary cash – and would we make a profit? 

That is something that certainly feeds through to the TAB boards. Profit, cash flow and margins are the key metrics. And if yours are moving in the wrong direction then your colleagues around the table will be very quick to ask what you’re doing about it. 

But once we get away from the idea that profit matters then things start to slip – and slip quickly. Profit goes hand in hand with fiscal responsibility. Does Wall Street care that Uber, Slack and Pinterest are losing hundreds of millions of dollars and may never make a profit? Apparently not. 

And more and more we see the same attitude in the public sector. Chris Grayling has just tossed away £50m of our money. Well, let’s keep the maths simple: assuming a nurse is paid £25,000 a year that £50m would have paid for 2,000 nurses. 

But here we are, increasingly slipping into a parallel universe where profit and fiscal responsibility seem unimportant. Someone needs to stand up and say that profit will alwaysmatter – before another 30,000 small businesses pay the price. 

Welcome to the Fifth Generation

As most of you know, I’ve played the occasional round of golf over the years. So it is impossible for me to start anywhere other than the 18thgreen at Augusta as Tiger Woods rolled in the putt which gave him his 15thmajor, after a gap of 11 years. 

Tiger’s had his problems. We all know that. We all know that his behaviour has sometimes fallen short of certain standards. But leaving that aside, to come back from all the operations, the injuries and the headlines to win another major is an astonishing achievement. And he’s 43 – as many of us who are a similar age will testify, that’s the age at which your body doesn’t always want to co-operate…

So let me add my congratulations. What an example of dedication and a sheer, bloody-minded refusal to be beaten. 

On to business, and the blog on a Wednesday morning – on the simple grounds that Friday may find you with better things to do than read my thoughts on 5G, the ‘fifth generation’ of mobiles. 

Two weeks ago both South Korea and the US launched commercial 5G services. This should bring a ‘new wave’ of capability and connectivity for smartphone users, with Samsung claiming that its Galaxy S10 5Gwill offer speeds that are up to 20x faster than current phones. 

What will 5G do? 

What will it do? 5G will simply be faster. Users should get more data, get it faster and enjoy better and more stable connections. 

Quoted in a BBC article, Ed Barton, chief entertainment analyst at Ovum, said the shift from 4G to 5G would be significant. 1G brought voice, 2G gave us text, 3G images and photos and 4G enabled video. “We’re expecting the leap from 4G to 5G to be a much greater leap than ever before,” said Barton. 

The current 4G offers download speeds of around 20Mbps. That is enough to download a movie in HD in 30 minutes. 5G will offer download speeds of 500 to 1,500Mbps – so you will be downloading your Saturday night movie in around 25-30 seconds. 

That’s incredibly quick – clearly you cannot make a cup of tea in 30 seconds or nip to the kitchen for another can of beer – so providing you have a good connection, 5G will see everything becoming more or less instant. Which is fine in theory: there is just the thorny question of coverage. Or the lack of it…  

Will 5G really improve coverage? 

Possibly… Which areas do and do not get coverage is still very much a business decision made by the phone companies. You may feel – as I do – that a good broadband signal is now an integral part of life. If, for example, I stay in a hotel I am far more concerned about the broadband signal than how many channels the TV has. 

You may therefore feel that our Government shouldn’t stand any nonsense from the phone companies. But they do – and the phone companies will continue to weigh the cost of new towers against the potential revenue from users in that area. 

Businesses continue to suffer

There is no question that UK businesses – especially in rural areas – are being held back by poor 4G connectivity. While 83% of urban homes and offices have complete 4G coverage, rural premises get less than half that, with no coverage at all in some remote parts of the country. As every member of TAB York knows as they drive around North Yorkshire…

For me, the roll-out of 5G across the wholecountry is essential. Nearly everyone I speak to sees it as far more important than HS2. It would be wonderful to see one of the phone companies really champion rural areas – and seaside towns, which are now also suffering because of poor connectivity. 

Sadly, if past performance is any guide that’s not going to happen. And that’s a real shame – the PR benefits for any company that made a genuine commitment to genuinely giving the UK 100% coverage would be enormous. 

But let’s at least try and have the glass half full for the Easter weekend…

What will 5G  bring us? 

The most exciting answer to that question is, ‘we don’t know.’ For example, once your smartphone could process payments and was aware of your location, it gave rise to companies like Uber and Lyft. 

But you are not reading this for a pathetic answer like ‘I don’t know’ so let’s look into the crystal ball and come up with some 5G predictions. Although if you are in the UK, it may be a good idea to move to London, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Belfast, Birmingham or Manchester. These are the citiesthat are supposed to have 5G capability by the middle of this year…

Mapping and shopping 

5G is going to allow your phone to know even more about you – and as the AI algorithms become ever-more powerful, expect your shopping to become more and more personalised. Just walking past Next? There’s a notification on your phone, with a special offer, just for you. And the female side of TAB will be pleased to know that stick-thin models could become a thing of the past. 5G and augmented reality could allow the catwalk models to look exactly like you…

Driverless cars and smart cities

5G will undoubtedly speed up the arrival of driverless cars – and with every other lamppost acting as a base station those driverless cars are going to take in all the information they need from the smart cities they are driving through. Quite how those driverless cars will fare when the passenger wants to go into the desolate British countryside is another matter…

The cloud and security

Very clearly, 5G will see everything heading up to the ‘cloud.’ And that’s fine – being able to access everything you need wherever you are – apart from the countryside and the seaside, of course – is vital for business. But so is security, and 5G has understandably given rise to plenty of security fears, especially where the Chinese company Huaweiis concerned.

Like 3G and 4G before it, 5G is unquestionably going to change lives, businesses and industries. Five or six years from now I will be writing about a $100bn company that hasn’t been founded yet. Like Uber, it will no doubt cause a ‘crisis’ in one sector of the economy. But we all know the old saying: the Chinese word for ‘crisis’ is made up of two characters – danger and opportunity. 

Have a wonderful Easter. The blog will now revert to its traditional Friday, and will be back on May 3rd

Why Entrepreneurs Must Tell Their Stories

I’m going to go back more than 60 years for a short discourse on literature and philosophy this morning. Bear with me – it could not be more relevant to the times we live in. 

Back in 1957 the Russian-American philosopher and writer Ayn Rand wrote Atlas Shrugged, the book for which she’s remembered. If you haven’t read it, let me summarise the plot for you. (Or watch the clip…)

The book is set in a dystopian USA, in which private businesses suffer under increasingly burdensome laws and regulations. Railroad executive Dagny Taggart and her lover, steel magnate Hank Rearden, are struggling against ‘looters’ – people who want to exploit and live off their productivity. Then they discover that a mysterious figure called John Galt is persuading other business leaders to abandon their companies and disappear – effectively encouraging productive people to go on strike against the looters. The novel ends with the strikers planning to build a new capitalist society, based on their own principles. 

One of the main themes of the book – without turning this into an English essay – is the failure of government policy and coercion. That’s summarised and captured in the ‘looters’ – advocates of high taxation, ‘big labour,’ government ownership, government spending, planning, regulation and redistribution.

It’s not what you think…

At this point you’re thinking, ‘Ah, Ed’s going to warn us about the dangers of a Labour government. That all this nonsense in Parliament, these talks with Jeremy Corbyn, could lead to a General Election. No need to, Ed…’ 

No, I’m not. I’m not even looking to make a political point. Yes, of course there is chaos in Government. I started this post on Tuesday morning after the latest set of ‘indicative votes’ on Brexit had all been defeated: at that point I wasn’t sure we even had a Government any more. But this morning I want to discuss an even broader theme – and it goes right back to 1957. 

Last week Lyftmade its stock market debut. The company was valued at $24bn, the biggest IPO since China’s Alibaba. But that will pale into insignificance when Uber comes to the New York Stock Exchange. Despite continuing to rack up billions in losses, the company is expected to be valued at around $120bn (around £92bn at current exchange rates). 

Meanwhile Tesla is outselling Mercedesin the US and BMW is next in its sights. Very clearly, the automobile industry is changing rapidly. Very clearly, every industry is changing rapidly. And along the way businesses are being built, wealth is being created and some people are getting very rich indeed. 

Why the race for the White House matters to us

But there is another development in the US – and it certainly has echoes in the UK. Those echoes are only going to get louder. 

Back in November there were the US Congressional elections. Perhaps the biggest story to come out of those was the election of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezin New York’s 14thDistrict. Ocasio-Cortez is 29 – the youngest woman ever to serve in Congress. She’s a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and her stance is unquestionably left wing. Her ‘policy guy’ is called Dan Riffle – and he has an interesting Twitter handle: Every Billionaire is a Policy Failure.

Earlier this year there was a simple opinion piece in the New York Times. The headline? Abolish Billionaires.

Meanwhile Democratic Presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren is making no secret of her desire to see the internet giants broken up. 

“Today’s big tech companies have too much power,” she wrote in an article. “They have bulldozed competition, used our private information for profit and tilted the playing field against everyone else. And in the process, they have hurt small business and stifled innovation.” 

You might think that is a patently ridiculous comment – after all there are thousands of small businesses that would not exist without Amazon – but it is becoming a key part of many Democratic candidates’ thinking.

Couple that with the rhetoric that is coming from Ocasio-Cortez’s spokesman, the New York Timesand – on this side of the Atlantic – more and more MPs and their advisers, and you’d be forgiven for thinking that those of us who run businesses and create wealth are the villains of society. That we are the ‘looters’ – taking from society and not giving back. 

The real picture

Right now, as I look round the various TAB UK tablesI don’t see any billionaires, who might one day be candidates for abolition. I do see plenty of successful people and, yes, I see them enjoying the fruits of that success. 

Equally, I know how that success has been earned. It’s been earned by ideas, by conviction, by a willingness to take risks, by a willingness to put yourself – and, sometimes, your family – on the line. It’s been earned by getting into the office at 6 in the morning and going home at 8 at night. 

It’s been earned by sitting at your desk feeling desperately lonely because no-one else can take the decisions you have to take. Above all it has been earned by dedication and focus: by consistent, remorseless dedication and focus. 

And along the way, that dedication and focus has created wealth – but not just for the entrepreneur. It has paid mortgages, paid for holidays, put children through university and made a contribution to local communities up and down the UK.

I am beyond proud to work with the TAB community. And they are representative of entrepreneurs throughout the UK and throughout a great many more countries. 

So the blog this morning is a rallying call – to never be afraid to tell the story of the wealth you create. There are plenty of people prepared to criticise you: plenty of people who haven’t put themselves on the line or worked a 14 hour day. But who nevertheless think they are entitled to spend the wealth you have created or decide howyou should spend it. 

Those voices are only going to get louder: we must make sure that we tell our stories just as loudly. 

The Importance of Cyber-Security for Your Business

The strength of TAB UK: Defence and Attack

Good morning – and welcome to 2019. I hope you had a wonderful Christmas, that you have returned to work refreshed, re-focused and reinvigorated and, if it is not too late, a very Happy New Year to anyone I’ve not yet spoken to.

I’m writing this on Thursday, or – as it almost certainly should be labelled – Black Thursday. Ford are planning to slash thousands of jobs, Jaguar Land-Rover are going to make 5,000 people redundant and – in the least surprising headline of the year – Debenhams and M&S have reported poor trading figures for Christmas. The high street, apparently, had its ‘worst Christmas for a decade.’

In search of a rather more uplifting message to start the year, let’s leave the UK and head off to sunnier climes. Specifically, to Las Vegas which this week is hosting CES2019. CES stands for Consumer Electronics Show and this year (as it always does) it features some astonishing products: the Breadbot (a fresh loaf of bread every six minutes), the Foldimate (anyone with teenage children should simply watch the video and place an order) and a ‘smart toilet’ that talks to you.

Given that the smart toilet talks to you via the Alexa app and Alexa does have a previous reputation for broadcasting your conversations to your friends, I think we might pass on that one…

But much as I love fresh bread and the idea of my boys’ clothes being folded automatically, it is a rather more serious tech development that I’d like to talk about this morning.

The importance of a cyber-defence

A perennial theme of this blog has been the pace of technological developments. In 2019 they look set to go at an even faster pace – and while freshly baked bread and freshly pressed clothes might be something to look forward to, there are some rather more serious developments on the horizon…

One of the things writing and researching the blog has increasingly given me is an interest in tech and trends – and I’m delighted that former LastMinute CEO Helen Webb will be talking about ‘megatrends’ at our TAB Conference in May. So over Christmas – at least when Maison Reid was finally cleaned up after our ever-expanding Christmas Eve party – I read a lot of articles more or less entitled ‘Predictions for 2019.’

There was one prediction that struck me very forcibly – that 2019 could be the year when a piece of malware or ransomware takes down a FT-SE100 company.

Two years ago we were all worrying about the NotPetya ransomware attack, which caused millions of pounds worth of damage to countries and companies around the world. Two years on and you can be sure that the viruses, ransomware and the AI behind them are more sophisticated and more dangerous. So much so that security firm Gemalto made this prediction: that ‘an AI orchestrated attack will take down a FT-SE 100 company.’ This will apparently see a new generation of malware infect an organisation’s systems, gather information (presumably on customers, bank accounts and products) and then let loose a series of attacks that will ‘take down the company from the inside out.’

How will companies counter these AI attacks? With AI of their own. We are heading towards a world where it will not be man vs. machine, but machine vs. machine.

…Which, of course, is fine if you are a FT-SE100 companies with a ‘defence’ budget of millions. But no-one sitting around a TAB boardroom table is the boss of a FT-SE100 company. We are owners and directors of SMEs acutely conscious that if it can happen to the big boys, it can happen to us.

“Come with me if you want to live!”

That’s one of the reasons I see 2019 as a year when TAB UK will be more important than ever. Increasingly the problems brought to the TAB table will be about technology and the threats we might face: that they’ll be about defending your business as much as they’ll be about developing your business.

Fortunately TAB gives you the chance to learn from not only the six or seven other people around your table, it also gives you the chance to learn from every member in the UK. Rest assured that any advice and guidance on protecting our businesses will be swiftly and widely disseminated.

Right now it is difficult not to read the news and be depressed: the Brexit shambles, the continuing US/China trade war and – most crucially – no transfer budget at St James’ Park…

And yet I have never been more optimistic about a coming year. As I wrote in December, I am privileged to work with some hugely talented, hard-working and dedicated people. Working together through TAB, I am certain that we’ll all have a year to remember…

By Ed Reid, TAB UK Managing Director

Read more of Ed’s Blogs here:

Your Goals for 2019

How to Manage a Millennial

The Importance of Brand Perception

Leadership: The Key to Prosperity

Another Year Ticked Off

Another year ticked off – but one that has made me feel a little older. Dan, my eldest son, has started his A-levels. Two years from now – gulp – I’ll be writing this wondering how the first term at university has changed him…
So I’d better crack on. But before I reflect on 2018, let me just look back to my last post of 2017. Here’s how I started on Friday, December 15th.

Well, we have a form of words. But as many commentators have already written, ‘Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.’ No matter, the Brexit talks can stumble forward to the next hurdle…

Meanwhile Donald Trump has antagonised 95% of the world by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Kim Jong-un is threatening to fire ICBMs on an almost daily basis, Germany doesn’t seem to have an effective government and China is threatening to take over the world. Oh, and the financial world will surely be rocked any day now when the Bitcoin bubble explodes.

Make plans for 2018? Only a madman would think of starting – or expanding – a business. Welcome to the madhouse.

What happened? Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un had a meeting, the Korean peninsula is being de-nuclearized, Germany has a government but Angela Merkel’s days are numbered, China is locked in a trade dispute with the US and Bitcoin has tumbled spectacularly.

In short, there has been change – just as there will always be change. And some of the people in the madhouse with me have done remarkably well in that year of change.

Brexit Shambles

Where there does not seem to have been any change is the complete shambles that is the Brexit negotiations. Virtually everyone knows that I voted Remain in the 2016 Referendum. I didn’t agree with the result, but I believe in democracy so I accepted it. My feeling then was simple: ‘It’s not what I voted for but let’s get on with it and secure the best possible deal. And don’t take too long about it because I’ve got a business to build.’

What have we seen since? A textbook on ‘how not to lead and how not to negotiate’ being written in front of our eyes. There are three months to go to the date on which we – in theory – leave the EU and as I write (on Tuesday morning) our Prime Minister is scurrying back to Europe for what the papers describe as a ‘last throw of the dice,’ with the can labelled ‘make a decision’ kicked down the road, apparently until January 21st.

Obviously I have now had to do a quick edit, given the events of Wednesday – the perils of writing about live events – but I don’t think my fundamental point is changed. Leadership is a theme that always runs through this blog. What does a good leader need? Vision, courage and honesty. What did Mrs May display? None of the above.

True Leadership

…And that is a tragedy, because the message I want to leave you with over Christmas is simple: leadership is the key to prosperity. The 2018 Legatum Prosperity Index was released earlier this month – and the trends are positive. Global prosperity – which includes wealth, wellbeing and security – is at its highest since the think tank launched the Prosperity Index 12 years ago. The UK is up to 7th in the table – but the conclusion this year is stark and simple: continued prosperity depends on good leadership.

In my view, that applies whether we are talking about a country or a company.

The other week we had the whole of TAB UK together in Manchester. In the evening we took over a restaurant. There was a quiet moment when I looked around – and found myself marvelling at the sheer quality of the people in the room. Some I’ve known for a long time: some I’ve only just met this year. But looking around that restaurant I saw leaders. Leaders of businesses and leaders of communities – and I could not have been more confident of the future.

Sometimes you gain your confidence from looking at the numbers and the KPIs: sometimes you just need to look up from your meatballs and pork belly…

New Year Outlook

2018 has been my first full year as MD of TAB UK. Whatever success the company has enjoyed would not have happened without the wonderful team at Harrogate. I’ve said it many times but let me publicly place on record my thanks to Suzanne, Rena, Emma and Conor. And, of course, to Mags: Mags, the phrase ‘grace under pressure’ is oft-quoted and seldom appropriate, but over the last few days I have never seen it better exemplified.

So to all the team at Harrogate, thank you. It is a joy and a privilege to work with you all.

On a personal note 2018 has been a brilliant year. The highlight was our family holiday in California when Dan and Rory might have decided that well, you know, going on holiday with the old people might not be so bad after all. And, as above, Dan has embarked on his A-levels, after a stellar performance in his GCSEs.

So that’s it from the blog for this year, which will return on Friday January 11th. As always, thank you for sparing me five or ten minutes on a Friday morning to read my ramblings.

It only remains for me to wish you all a wonderful Christmas – and may the coming year bring everything you would wish for. 2019 will be the tenth year of The Alternative Board in the UK: stand by for fireworks…

Read more of my blogs here:

Your Goals for 2019

How to Manage a Millennial

The Importance of Brand Perception