Increasingly Productive – just not Officially…


Well there you are. The Ed Reid Blog scores again.

Joe Root hits the highest ever score by someone captaining England for the first time, and it’s the first win over South Africa at Lords since the average house cost £2,530 and a season ticket to watch Manchester United was £8-10-0d. I tell you, I’m wasting my time writing business blogs…

But the ECB haven’t phoned me, my invoice for ‘sports psychology coaching’ remains resolutely unpaid so here I am – considering the UK’s fairly dismal productivity figures.

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Last week the Office for National Statistics released figures showing that the productivity of UK workers had dropped to levels last seen before the financial crisis – hourly output is now 0.4% below the peak recorded at the end of 2007.

We’ve all known for some time that UK productivity lags behind its major competitors such as the US, France and Germany. A quick glance at the world productivity ‘league table’ shows the UK languishing in 13th place. Norway lead the way, from Luxembourg and the United States, but the UK is scarcely ahead of those sun-kissed holiday destinations where everything closes for the afternoon.

The UK has recovered well since the 2008 crisis but – according to the learned pundits and commentators – that is a product of more people working, and of people working longer hours, rather than a function of increased productivity. Kamal Ahmed, BBC Economics Editor, wrote, “Today’s figures are bad to the point of shocking. [The figures] take the UK’s ability to create wealth back below the level of 2007 – and if an economy cannot create wealth, then tax receipts, the mainstay of government income, will weaken.” Others have blamed underinvestment, the uncertainty caused by Brexit and the current political situation, and sluggish wage growth.

But you know what? I think it may be time to reach for one of the more valuable business tools – a healthy pinch of salt.

Because as I look around me, I don’t see falling productivity. I see exactly the opposite. Virtually every business I work with is busier than they’ve ever been.

Yes, there’s uncertainty: but when has there not been uncertainty for the entrepreneur? And no, the vast majority of the people I work with didn’t vote for Brexit: but they’ve moved on. People running businesses are no longer fighting last year’s war: they’ve accepted the result and they’re now looking to future.

For all the despondency from much of the media, I’d say the ‘optimism index’ among owners and directors of SMEs is high. They’re certainly working hard enough: according to this story in City AM half of them took fewer than six days off last year. (Don’t worry, I’ll be taking them to task in the coming weeks…)

So I’m sceptical about the productivity figures. Traditionally, a country’s productivity is calculated by a splendidly complex formula with references to 2005 and 2013 comparators.

I suspect that we may need a new metric: the nature of productivity is changing. Web designers, app developers, SEO experts – there are plenty of jobs now which did not exist ten years ago and which don’t lend themselves to traditional ‘output’ measurements. London remains the tech capital of Europe and more people are working across borders: it may be that productivity is simply getting harder to measure by the previously used methods.

Then there are the regional differences – output per hour worked in London’s financial and insurance sectors was around seven times higher than in the regions with the lowest industrial productivity – and, even more importantly, the company-by-company differences. I am absolutely certain that if we had a ‘TAB UK productivity index’ we would be right at the top of any league table. I like to think a small part of that is because TAB keeps people focused on being productive, not on being busy.

As Paul J Meyer, founder of the Leadership Management Institute said, “Productivity is never an accident. It is always the result of a commitment to excellence, intelligent planning and focused effort.”

I don’t know anyone who captures that more than the TAB UK members, and it has been a real privilege to meet more and more of them over the last few months. I couldn’t be more excited about all our – very productive – futures.

Dear Prime Minister…


Last week I looked at the lessons we can learn from the General Election campaign.

This week I wanted to start with, ‘The dust has settled and we can get back to normal…’ But, apparently not: still no deal with the DUP and a Queen’s Speech which roughly translated as, ‘Sort it yourselves, I’m off to Ascot.’

Apparently many Conservative MPs are privately admitting to disappointment at the way the Prime Minister has handled the talks with the DUP. Ah well, it’s not as though she has any major negotiations coming up…

But sooner or later the dust will settle: sooner or later we will have a government that won’t be in permanent crisis. Perhaps then the politicians could turn their attention to business: to the tens of thousands of small business owners up and down the land that are building a future for themselves and their families.

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So here’s my open letter to whoever is PM when the music stops. I’m sure TAB members and franchisees will have their own ‘wish lists.’ Here’s mine…

First and foremost, Prime Minister, perhaps you and our other elected representatives could put your big boy pants on? Raise your eyes from the Westminster village and your plots and counter-plots and realise that there is a country to govern. More importantly a country which faces serious challenges – whether it is the ageing population, the ridiculous amount of money wasted on treating the all-too-preventable obesity crisis or the impact AI and robotics are going to have on our jobs. It is time to stop kicking every potential crisis into the long grass and hoping it doesn’t need addressing again until you are writing your memoirs.

And then there’s Brexit – in particular, defining the shape you want it to take. Call me old fashioned but – like most business owners – I prefer to go into negotiations knowing what I want to achieve. That doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment.

As a business owner and a father, I want to see continued investment in our world class universities. We cannot turn the clock back: we live in a global society and we’re not just competing locally for the best talent, we’re competing internationally. So let’s do everything we can to attract that talent to the UK. And while I’m on education, could we just have a radical overhaul of the school curriculum? As Dan and Rory get older I look at some of the work they bring home and I think, ‘that’s the same essay I did thirty years ago.’ If they ever need to know about an ox-bow lake they’ll ask Wiki: teach them to be creative, to solve problems.

Increasingly work is about successful collaboration: and yet we continue to examine ever more irrelevant subjects on an individual basis. Would it be so hard to examine a project that four students had worked on together?

What’s next? A comprehensive review of the tax system. Seriously, what is National Insurance? Would anyone invent it now? In much the same way as we have 20th century town centres trying to cope with 21st Century shopping habits, so we have a 20th Century tax system trying to cope with 21st Century working patterns. People have more than one job, they’re employed, they’re self-employed, they’re contracting, they’re working overseas. Goods are designed in one country, refined in another, manufactured in a third, shipped across continents and sold across the world. And all the time, the poor old tax system is puffing and panting as it runs after the money.

Simplify the system and embrace the Laffer Curve. Give business an incentive to invest and to make profits and it will generate the revenues the country needs. Treat it as a cash cow to provide for everything and everybody and it will rapidly move to a more hospitable tax regime.

It may also move to somewhere you can get a phone signal. I know this is looking dangerously to the future, but could we please have a full and speedy roll out of 5G? Yes, yes, I know your Chancellor has said that he is committed to it but so far that commitment doesn’t extend to a starting date. Right now the UK is ranked 54th in the world for 4G LTE connections and bluntly, it is not good enough. We are behind Morocco and Greece. Even 4G only works intermittently – unless you’re driving through parts of North Yorkshire, when ‘intermittent’ would be a remarkable improvement.

5G is expected to start rolling out worldwide in 2020: according to this article in Wired, South Korea has been preparing for it since 2008. That’s very nearly ten years. In the Spring Budget we committed the mighty sum of £16m for ‘further research.’ If we are going to leave the EU and become a ‘global hub’ then we are going to have to do a lot better than £16m.

Lastly, could we please make long term investments in a coherent, joined-up, 21st Century transport system? Other countries in Europe have taken the long term view, invested in their rail networks and now have modern, connected, effective services. Meanwhile there is a credible argument that the Conservatives lost their majority thanks to congestion on Southern Rail. £90bn on HS2? I can think of other priorities. HS2 will save minutes: business owners waste hours sitting in contraflows on our ‘smart motorways.’ No matter, I’ll just save up and buy one of these little beauties

That’s it. Except that if you’re still struggling to cobble a government together give me a ring. I know plenty of owners of SME’s who are first-rate negotiators. 10 members of the DUP to sort out? They’d do it before breakfast…

Best regards

Ed

Lessons from the Maybot


Consider these two newspaper headlines:

South Milford FC win Champions League

Labour win Kensington & Chelsea

Well, you think. A Chinese conglomerate. Don’t see the value in spending £3bn on Manchester United. Decided to do it the romantic way. Small local team – but a million people within 30 minutes. 20 year plan, work their way up the football pyramid. Suppose it could happen…

What was the other one? Labour win Kensington & Chelsea? Have a word with yourself. And don’t forget your medication…

Except last Friday afternoon it did happen. With a majority of just 20, Emma Dent Coad captured Kensington and Chelsea for Labour. And if you want a measure of how completely inept the Conservative election campaign was, there you have it.

‘I didn’t fail. I learned,’ is one the great aphorisms of the positive-thinking industry. Well, Theresa May certainly learned how to take a working majority and turn it into – dare I use the phrase – a coalition of chaos. As everyone knows, she is now dependent on the DUP, whose ten MPs shuffled into the limelight last Friday afternoon like a factory syndicate who had won the lottery.

But this is a business blog, not a politics one. Are there any lessons we as business owners can learn from the election, the Conservative ‘strategy’ and the Maybot? Oh yes…

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First and foremost, don’t ever take success for granted. I hope Ian Hislop doesn’t mind: I photographed the Private Eye cover from May 18th as my illustration this week. At the time it exactly summed up the mood in Conservative Central Office: it wasn’t a General Election, it was a coronation.

…Did the Conservatives underestimate Corbyn? Only by a factor of 300 – in much the same way that the Clinton camp underestimated Trump. In both cases the overwhelming favourite said, ‘You can’t possibly vote for my opponent:’ to which the electorate replied, ‘Watch us.’

Whatever you’re doing – whether you’re pitching for a contract, tendering for some work, making a presentation to potential clients – you must show up, give your best every single time and never, ever underestimate your opponents. No-one – clients, customers or the electorate – likes to be taken for granted.

Yes, show up. Sounds obvious doesn’t it? You need to show up, even if it’s going to be tough. Say what you like about Corbyn – he turned up, he was prepared to speak, his events were free and he connected with people. Theresa May hunkered in her bunker muttering “strong and stable.” I am sorry, Prime Minister, when the going gets tough, the tough do not send Amber Rudd.

What’s next? Ah yes, the personality cult. They weren’t Conservative candidates were they? They were ‘Theresa May’s local candidate.’ The cabinet? Never heard of them: are you talking about ‘Theresa May’s team?’ If you want to make it all about your personality – whether it’s your business or the General Election – just make sure you have one.

Have a vision. How many times have we said that the leader’s job is to lead? To have a vision and communicate that vision. End tuition fees, raise in the minimum wage, a hand-up for the many… Whether you agree with it or not, that was a vision.

Trust your team. When she became PM Theresa May shuffled her team. Whatever your view of Messrs Hammond, Johnson and Davis – and Ms Rudd – they are experienced politicians. They’re used to campaigning. If you’ve handpicked your team, you have to trust them. No business grows or succeeds by the boss micro-managing every single decision himself.

Lastly, don’t always rely on the same people for advice. The apocryphal story is that the only person Mrs May would take a phone call from during the campaign was the Queen (yep, probably asking for her coach back…) Clearly the PM’s advice came from her two, now-departed, special advisers and her husband, all of whom were telling her what she wanted to hear. Maybe she should have joined a TAB Board for the duration of the campaign: she’d certainly have received advice at odds with her thinking but – as it so often does for so many business owners – it would have saved her from some disastrous mistakes.

So did Theresa May get anything right? Well, certainly not the Mexican wave on Tuesday night but – as one of my team in Harrogate pointed out – she always wore nice shoes…

I could go on and on – but enough’s enough. The Conservative campaign was easily the most inept in my lifetime. And yes, I know she is still Prime Minster but go back to the end of April. Record approval ratings and a 20 point lead in the polls. It’s the equivalent of a team leading 6-0 at half-time, scoring six own goals and scraping home 7-6. A win is a win, but at what price in the long term? What will it cost the country, the economy and our businesses?

The Entrepreneur’s Manifesto


First things first. This post was written on Thursday: by the time you read it you’ll have sat up all night watching the results come in or – early on Friday morning – you’ll have smiled with satisfaction. Or wondered if you could relocate to Mexico…

Either way, we’ll have a new government: new policies, new priorities and – as usual – those of us running a business will need to adapt. There are some very definite things that I’d like to see over the next five years and I’ll be writing about them next week. For now, let me reflect on the campaign that has just ended.

…And go back to some words I wrote in July 2014, when Theresa May was Home Secretary, Jeremy Corbyn was a maverick backbencher and the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition could look forward to another 10 months in power.

Seven o’clock the next morning. He’s in his office. A bank of computer screens. Stock market prices, foreign currency exchange – and the production figures from his factories; the sales figures from his shops. He finishes his black coffee, takes his tablets and settles into another high-risk, high-pressure day. Another typical day for an entrepreneur…

That’s the popular perception of the entrepreneur – someone who loves risk, who needs the adrenalin rush from risk, who even goes out of his way to create risk when none exists.

We could well take the stereotype even further. Focused, ruthless, determined to get what he (yes, the “typical” entrepreneur is always a he) wants. Doesn’t care who gets trampled in the process…

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One of the things that has most disappointed me about this election campaign has been that both sides have failed to understand the role of the entrepreneur in our society – that the picture of ‘the typical entrepreneur’ has been allowed to hold sway.

To Labour supporters “the rich” (let’s not use some of the other epithets) have been nothing more than a vehicle to be taxed: an inexhaustible supply of cash for the state. But neither have the Conservatives supported our cause: the entrepreneur has taken a back seat as they increasingly see ‘big government’ as the engine of growth.

I know virtually no-one in TAB who fits that outdated picture of the stereotypical entrepreneur. Yes, of course many TAB members and franchisees want to build successful businesses for themselves and their families – but almost none of them have the creation of personal wealth as their sole motivation.

You won’t be surprised to hear that I think entrepreneurs are some of the most important members of our society. They create jobs: in the UK, more than 15m people are employed by SMEs.

They innovate – the iPhone, the Dyson, your computer’s operating system. So much of what we take for granted now was born out of an entrepreneur’s spirit, determination and willingness to make sacrifices.

Entrepreneurs drive economic growth – and they accept risk. Ultimately, nothing is created without someone, somewhere taking a risk. And that person is almost always an entrepreneur.

And entrepreneurs give back. Yes, initiatives such as The Giving Pledge will always attract the major headlines, but I constantly see entrepreneurs working in their local areas without any expectation of reward or recognition, giving back to communities that have given so much to them.

Let me leave you with the story of one entrepreneur. He was born in Hackney: his father was a tailor in the garment industry and they lived in a council flat. He earned extra money for the family by working in a greengrocer’s and then – after a brief spell at the Ministry of Education – he began selling car aerials out of a van he’d bought for £50 and insured for £8.

And in January of this year he paid £58,646,028.44 in tax.

You will have your own views on Lord Sugar. Whatever they are, you cannot deny that he is an entrepreneur who has innovated, created jobs and – ultimately – given back to society.

In the election campaign he was roundly vilified by left wing Labour supporters for suggesting (tactfully, as he always does) that their leader may not be up to the job.

In response to the criticism, he revealed the amount of tax he paid in January of this year. Yes, 58 million quid.

Alan Sugar could undoubtedly have spent his working life at the Ministry of Education: he’d now be quietly retired on an index-linked pension. Instead, he started selling car aerials in Hackney market – and he has just paid the salary of 2,320 nurses…

In Praise of Praise


I’ve written previously about Millennials, Baby Boomers and all the other generational labels that we pretend we know. So far, though, I’ve neglected the ‘Snowflake Generation.’

‘Snowflake,’ for those of you that don’t know, is a less-than-complimentary term applied to the young adults of the 2010s: it probably comes from the 1999 film Fight Club and its famous line: ‘We are not special. We are not beautiful and unique snowflakes.’

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It’s now come to be applied to a generation that supposedly were told they were special; children that were given an over-inflated sense of their own worth and – as a consequence – are now far too easily offended.

But now these easily-offended snowflakes are entering the workplace. So what are we as employers and business owners going to do when these ‘snowflakes’ increasingly make up the workforce? Are we going to have to constantly shower them with praise, irrespective of how well they’re performing?

Maybe the question is academic though – because far too many bosses and managers seem to have a problem with giving their teams any praise.

Why is that? Any number of research studies show that praise and positive recognition in the workplace can be hugely motivating – and not just for the person on the receiving end of it. Employee of the Month is too easily dismissed as a cliché: that’s wrong, it works.

We don’t really need a research study, do we? Our own commons sense tells us that praise works. Your wife only has to say, “Oh, darling, that was wonderful…” And you’ll be far more likely to make her another slice of toast.

One of the worst things a manager can do is reward hard work and achievement with silence. Yet only one in four American workers are confident that if they do good work they’ll be praised for it. Far too often the culture seems to be, “No news is good news” or – as they say in Germany – “Nicht gescholten ist lob genug.” (No scolding is praise enough.)

But we all know that’s nonsense. So why do people struggle to give praise? Maybe it starts with a false belief that really good managers are the tough ones who don’t hold back when it comes to telling people what’s wrong. Maybe some managers believe that giving praise will encourage staff to take it easy and rest on their laurels. Some might be consciously or unconsciously copying their own previous bosses: some managers might even see giving praise as a sign of weakness.

Whatever the reason the number of managers who don’t give any positive feedback is frighteningly high – 37% according to a recent survey in the Harvard Business Review. And you can probably add a few percentage points more: there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that what a manager sees as ‘straightforward, honest feedback’ is all too often perceived as criticism.

I think that’s a tragedy. There’s no better way to motivate people than by giving praise and it always works. There cannot be a more effective phrase in a manager’s vocabulary than, “You did a great job. Thank you.”

Not for the first time, I’m struck by the parallel between managing a team and being a parent. I’ve always tried to be honest with my boys: if they’ve done brilliantly, I’ll shower them with praise. If they could have done better, I’ll try to tactfully point it out – and suggest a way they could improve. I’ve never been a believer in praising everything they do – otherwise praise becomes meaningless – and the same is true in the workplace. But if someone has done a great job, tell them.

It will be the best investment of time and no money you ever make.

And now I must turn my attention to my own beautiful, unique snowflakes. If you can call someone who thinks his bedroom floor should be covered in underpants and needs a three course meal two hours before a three course meal a ‘snowflake…’

United we Fall


Even if you’ve been living in the proverbial cave at the bottom of the proverbial salt mine the news of United Airlines PR disaster-to-end-all-PR-disasters must have reached you by now.

I’ve covered disaster, catastrophe and the required corporate apology before. But that was something minor – just an oil spill and devastation of a coastline. In PR terms, hauling Dr David Dao up the aisle of the United flight to Kentucky was in an altogether different league.

Why? It’s simple. Devastating a coastline is tragic: of course it’s a disaster. But it’s a news item.

What United did to Dr Dao was personal. There isn’t one of us who – next time he flies – won’t sit in his seat, fasten his safety belt and then glance at the aisle of the aeroplane and think, ‘It could have been me…’

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Was United’s action legal? Sadly, yes. It’s right there in the terms and conditions, in 8pt print at the bottom of page 23. Airlines routinely sell tickets to more people than a plane can seat, counting on several people not to arrive. When there are not enough ‘no-shows’ – that is, when passengers are so inconsiderate that they turn up for the flight they booked – then the airlines first try to persuade, reward or bribe passengers to change their flight. Then…

And the figures are small – almost insignificant. In 2016, United Airlines denied boarding to 3,765 of its 86 million passengers: an additional 62,895 passengers voluntarily gave up their seats. In very round figures, that gives you a 1 in 1,000 chance of being ‘bumped,’ voluntarily or involuntarily.

But none of this matters: because we’ll all look at the aisle of the plane and wonder…

Not surprisingly, United took a savage beating on social media: ‘New United Airlines Mottos’ rapidly became one of Twitter’s most popular hashtags…

We put the hospital in hospitality!

Fight or flight

If you can’t seat ’em, beat ’em

…And several others which have no place in a family blog on a Friday morning.

The stock market was equally quick to react with more than $1 billion wiped off United’s stock market valuation.

United’s response to all this was ‘apology by committee.’ You could see the eventual statement had gone round the company several times, with every department head making sure his own base was covered. CEO Oscar Munoz even tried to deflect the blame on to David Dao, saying that he had been “disruptive and belligerent.”

What would I have done? Four things:

  • Have one person immediately issue a genuine and sincere apology to Dr Dao and the other passengers on the flight, without worrying about any hurt feelings at United HQ
  • Settle Dr Dao’s lawsuit immediately, whatever the cost. United cannot have people constantly reminded of this incident
  • Sack the security team, sack the CEO and sack anyone else who didn’t have the courage and the common sense to say, “Stop. This is wrong.”
  • Announce an immediate end to the overbooking of flights. United – and all other airlines come to that – need to give an absolute guarantee that you cannot pay for a flight and then be ‘bounced.’

But all those moves are simply locking the stable door long, long after the horse has bolted. What they needed – what every company needs – is a culture where incidents like that simply cannot occur in the first place. No-one can legislate for one individual’s erratic behaviour, but in United’s debacle everyone screwed up – and it was indicative of a deeper malaise at the company.

Thankfully as I meet more and more Alternative Board members up and down the UK I see the same commitment to clients and customers, and the same determination to build and empower great teams, that was so evident in York. Dr Dao would be safe with any member of the Alternative Board. (United’s HQ is in Chicago: maybe it’s not too late for Oscar Munoz to sign up…)

That’s it for this week – and yes, before you ask, I have noticed that there’s going to be a General Election. I’ll tackle it next week…

Negotiating with Friends: How we got it Right


Negotiation is very rarely about the short term. It’s an area where you really need to think ‘win/win’ because nine times out ten you’re going to have an ongoing relationship with the person across the table. So don’t set out to ‘screw’ someone: in the long run that attitude is unlikely to be profitable.

That was what I said last week when I was discussing the general principles of negotiation. ‘Think win/win. Nine times out of ten you’re going to have an ongoing relationship.’ But that becomes even more true when you’re negotiating with a friend – as I did when I bought TAB UK from Paul Dickinson and Jo Clarkson.

“Never do business with a friend,” is an old business maxim – and it’s probably saved a lot of friendships – but sometimes doing business with friends and, ultimately, negotiating with them is inevitable.

“Loan oft loses both itself and friendship,” said Polonius, giving advice to his son Laertes before he set sail for France. Well negotiation can do exactly the same: the negotiations can flounder and the friendship can be ruined. Worse still, the negotiations can apparently ‘succeed.’ And then one party gradually realises he’s been ripped off: that he’s been taken advantage of by someone he previously considered a friend. Not any more…

The negotiations to buy TAB UK were long and complex: there were two people involved on both sides, plus accountants, bankers, lawyers – and our respective families.

As Mags and I sat across the table from Paul and Jo I had four priorities:

  • I wanted to buy the UK franchise for The Alternative Board: I’d talked it over with Dav – at length – and I absolutely believed it was the right thing for me, and for my family
  • But like any business deal, I wanted to buy it at the right price
  • I wanted to make sure the negotiations did nothing to damage TAB UK going forward
  • And I wanted to retain the friendship of two people I liked, respected and valued greatly as business colleagues and confidantes.

So how did we set out to achieve that? There were three key rules that guided us through the negotiations and which protected and strengthened our friendship.

  • First and foremost, we set the stage. Both sides were absolutely open about what they wanted to achieve in the negotiations. We constantly asked ourselves a simple question: ‘Is this fair to you? Is it fair to us? And is it in the best long-term interests of TAB UK?’ That question was, if you like, the mission statement of the negotiations
  • …Which inevitably brings me to one of Stephen Covey’s ‘7 Habits.’ “Seek first to understand, then to be understood.” There was a real willingness to see the other side’s point of view. If you do find yourself negotiating with a friend it’s vital to see the negotiations from both sides of the table
  • So there was plenty of goodwill on both sides. But even with all that goodwill, there were bumps in the road: that was inevitable with such complex negotiations. The key was to look ahead and anticipate problems, to be open about setbacks and to clear up any misunderstandings as quickly as possible.

The net result? A very successful negotiation and both sides happy with the outcome. Was it easy? No, but then readers of this blog don’t need telling that few things that are worthwhile are easy. Ultimately, I’m absolutely delighted with the outcome – I’m equally delighted that Paul and Jo will be friends for life.

As it’s Easter, let me finish on a slightly lighter note – and a warning, if you’re planning to spend four days in the garden…

When I’m writing these posts I always – irrespective of how well I know the subject – check with Google, just to see if the Harvard Business Review or one of the entrepreneur magazines has a different perspective. And I’m increasingly astonished at how few words I need to type in before Google guesses what I’m after.

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Or I was – until this morning. How do you negotiate with I tapped in. Before I could add a friend, Google completed the sentence for me. How do you negotiate with a Sim eating plant? Seriously? That’s the most popular query about negotiation?

Well, fair enough. I always preach the value of knowing and researching your market…

So for those of you whose Easter might otherwise be ruined by the death of your carefully-nurtured Sims, I present perhaps the most useful advice ever offered on this blog. (Warning: the video contains violent scenes which some readers might find distressing. It also contains a teenage son doing nothing while his father is eaten by a tomato plant…)

The Best Bargaining Chips


It’s now nine days since Theresa May formally triggered Brexit, beginning two years of long and complex negotiations with the remaining 27 members of the EU. Whichever way you voted last June there’ll be days when you’re elated and days when you despair. Right now, only one thing is certain – the word ‘negotiation’ is never going to be far from the headlines…

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It’s certainly played a central part in my life of late, with the lengthy negotiations to buy TAB UK – and what I suspect may be even lengthier negotiations as my sons go through their teenage years. So you’ll be in for ten? I was thinking more like midnight, Dad…

While I await the grey hair and the whispered ‘was that the front door?’ conversation with my wife, let’s take a look at some of the basic principles of negotiation – and then next week I’ll build on those principles by discussing the rather more thorny question of negotiating with a friend – exactly what I was doing when I bought TAB UK.

First things first: unless you’re in a Moroccan bazaar, negotiation is very rarely about the short term. It’s an area where you really need to think ‘win/win’ because nine times out ten you’re going to have an ongoing relationship with the person across the table. So don’t set out to ‘screw’ someone: in the long run that attitude is unlikely to be profitable.

I’ve always tried to go into any negotiations with three positions: my optimum (sell the car for £20,000); desirable (happy with £19,000) and my essential, bottom line price (I can’t accept less than £17,500).

Your ‘opposition’ – I don’t like to use the word but you know what I mean – will have those three in the reverse order. They’d be very happy to buy your car for £16,500, prepared to pay £18,000 and the maximum they’d pay before walking away would be £19,000.

In the scenario above it’s likely that the car would be sold for around £18,000 – assuming both negotiators are equally skilled.

So what do I mean by a ‘skilled negotiator?’ Looking back over my time in business there are probably four principles I’ve seen that work effectively and consistently: in my view, anyone applying these principles is a skilled negotiator.

  • The first thing is to keep the big picture in mind – and leave your ego at the door. I’ve seen too many negotiations fail because people got bogged down in petty details or tried to score points. It’s not just about demanding, “What’s your bottom line?” It’s also about discovering the other person’s ODE – optimum, desirable, essential. If you can operate within those parameters then you have scope to build – or strengthen – a long term relationship.
  • Sooner or later we all have to negotiate with someone we don’t like: someone who changes his mind, can’t make a decision, can’t remember what decision he did make – or all three. The answer is simple: concentrate on the issues, not the personalities. Stick to what you want, and be patient. It may well happen – as happened to me two or three times – that you sigh, mentally prepare yourself for another frustrating day, sit down at the table – and find a new face opposite you. All the problems vanish and the negotiations are wrapped up in a couple of hours. ‘Keep the main thing the main thing’ applies just as much in negotiation as it does in building your business: and the ‘main thing’ is what you want, not the failings of the person opposite you.
  • And don’t get emotional. At least, not for real. Any emotion is fine as long as you are in control of it. But don’t let yourself get angry, frustrated or sarcastic. And don’t get bored: we’re not talking about smoke-filled committee rooms where the old style politicos turned up with flask and sandwiches and simply bored their opponents into submission – but sometimes you do need to settle in for the long haul.
  • Finally, if you’re talking money, think in real money. We all know the traditional approach of breaking it down into ‘silly money:’ Look, you’re going to have this car for three years. £1,000 is 91p a day: two trips to Starbucks a week. Are you going to let that stand between you and a four year old Fiat Punto in Canary Yellow? A £1,000 is £1,000 however you break it down – which brings me back to my original point about optimum/desirable/essential price points. There has to be a point at which you walk away. If you cannot accept less than £17,500 for your car then you cannot sell it for £17,499 – if nothing else determines that, your self-respect should.

With that have a lovely weekend in the (forecast) sunshine and I’ll be back next week with the more personal side of negotiation. And my apologies to anyone who does own a four year old Fiat Punto in Canary Yellow…

The Billy Index


I hesitate to write about current affairs, given that last week I devoted 700 words to the Budget on Tuesday, only for the Chancellor to change his mind – and cause a re-write – on Wednesday. But the P in the PEST analysis seems to be impinging on all our lives and businesses so much at the moment that you can’t ignore it.

According to one of the Sunday papers there was going to be a snap General Election: Comment Central followed up with the same story on Monday. Downing Street swiftly dismissed the idea as ‘nonsense.’

If you’re planning a holiday the rumoured date is May 4th – just six weeks away: and just about when we find out if France is going to follow Holland down the path of common sense, or whether Marine le Pen will be in the Elysee Palace. In which case, ‘cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war’ as Shakespeare wrote.

Over the next few weeks and months I suspect we’re all going to spend more time with the news bulletins than we’d like to – especially after Wednesday’s tragic events. So let’s turn to something lighter this week; specifically, Ikea’s Billy bookcase.

bookcases

In our time we’ve all shopped at Ikea: for beds, sofas, desks for our office and yes, a bookcase that even I can put together on a Saturday morning. The ubiquitous Billy bookcase: dreamed up in 1978 by a designer called Gillis Lundgren and sketched on the back of a napkin in case he forgot it.

There are now more than 60 million Billy bookcases scattered around the world – in very round figures, one for every 100 people on the planet. And so common – and far-flung – is the Billy Bookcase that Bloomberg use them to compare purchasing power. For example, a Billy costs £79 in Egypt: just £31 in Slovakia.

And thinking about the Billy Bookcase Index set me wondering: what other unusual economic indicators are there?

So let’s start with another tick in the ‘never say never’ column. I never thought I’d use the phrase ‘bodice ripper’ in this blog but yes, bodice ripping romance novels fly off the shelves in tough times. Sales were up 32% in 2008, the year of the economic crash. And the ‘high heel index’ confirms that heels also get higher during a recession.

Another indicator of tough economic times – sales of men’s underwear fall sharply, as we look to economise in areas that won’t be noticed. Hopefully… And, of course, more people grow their own fruit and veg: the number of households growing their own fruit, veg and herbs was up 19% in 2009.

What other indicators of the economy tanking are there? Fortunately we’re past this stage but a key indicator is the ‘Diaper rash index.’ During hard times parents try and save money by changing their babies’ nappies (yes, diapers to my American colleagues) less often – so sales of nappy rash cream increase.

Moving through life’s journey, there is an increase in first dates during a recession as people look to brighten the gloom. Match.com reported that the second quarter of 2008 was its busiest period for seven years.

And sadly, long after the mystery of the first date, there is an increase in the re-sale of burial plots when the economy is struggling, as people decide that cremation will be a cheaper option.

But my favourite indicator of hard times (literally) is the ‘marine intensity index.’ With the economy in trouble, more and more people apply to join the US marines. So to discourage applications from anyone who’s not 100% committed the Marine Corps toughen up their ads. Fast forward four years and if you see a marine wearing swimming trunks, carrying a 40lb pack and wading through Arctic water you’ll know that Trump’s economic reforms haven’t worked out too well…

What’s the best indicator that the economy is doing well? Garbage, rubbish, trash… As we produce and consume more, so there’s more rubbish. An analysis by Bloomberg put the correlation between volume of rubbish and the health of the economy as high as 82%.

As we might expect, we’re more willing to get divorced as the economy improves and the Swiss watch index soars into the stratosphere.

More worryingly (given my new role) the New HQ index also rises as the economy improves. Companies are more ready to spend the money on a new headquarters – not always with successful results. There’s an old stock market saw that says sell your stock when the MD or CEO announces an expensive new HQ and recently The New York Times, AOL and Time Warner have all fallen victim to the curse.

It is therefore with great pleasure that I can announce that TAB UK will still be at 15 Hornbeam Square next week – and I’ll be back with a post on ‘agile leadership…’

The Five Lessons I’ve Learned


I was talking to a potential new member of TAB York last week: explaining what I did, how the concept of peer coaching worked, the benefits it had brought to my members… And looking back on the seven years I’ve been running TAB York.

“So,” she said. “What are the five key pieces of advice you’d give to an entrepreneur?

Five? I thought. More like 55. Or 555. But let me try and answer the question more successfully than I answered it then. What are the five most important lessons I’ve learned in the past seven years – and by definition, the five most important pieces of advice I’d give?

Lessons Learned written on chalkboard

1.The job of a leader is to lead

You’ve pushed your breakfast round your plate in a desolate motorway service station: you’ve decided that enough is enough. It’s time to start your own business. You owe it to yourself: you owe it to your family. Sooner or later your new business will be employing people – and your job is simple. It’s to lead them: to say, ‘this is the where we’re going, follow me.’ There are plenty of other things you need to do – realise you don’t need to be an expert in everything and don’t be afraid to hire people who are brighter than you – but it is your drive, determination and vision that will carry the company forward.

2.A mistake is only a mistake

I made Spaghetti Bolognese at the weekend. I broke a bowl, tipped pasta sauce on the floor and left the gas on under a pan. They were mistakes – and that’s all they were. No-one (not even my wife) is suggesting that I give up cooking and never enter the kitchen again. So your latest idea didn’t work out: the guy you hired who was going to transform your business transformed it in the wrong direction. Move on: you live to fight another day – your vision is still the same. No-one scores 100% with their decisions – and as the saying goes, ‘the man who never makes a mistake never makes anything.’

3.Keep on Learning

I think we can say that the world has changed since I joined The Alternative Board in 2009. In that year Facebook had 360m users and 20m iPhones were sold. Today the figures are approaching 2 billion and over 200 million. In 2009 Apple had just introduced a fledgling service called the ‘app store.’ The pace of change over the last seven years has been astonishing, and it’s not going to slow down. You need to set aside time to learn – and as I wrote a few weeks ago, if you don’t develop and grow, then your company can’t develop and grow.

4.Nothing can replace your KPIs

Having just written about change, let me turn to something which can never change: your Key Performance Indicators – the numbers and metrics which tell you the current state of your business and go a very long way to predicting its future.

If I’ve seen one cause of business failure over the past seven years it’s not knowing your KPIs. Checking your KPIs every month is simply essential to the continued success of your business. And ‘How much have we got in the bank?’ is not an adequate check. Sadly, it is almost always followed by ‘Can we afford to pay the wages this month?’

5.Your product is more important than anything

Despite the internet, despite social media, despite e-mail marketing and despite every change that’s happened over the last seven years, your product (or service) remains the key to everything. And if it’s not excellent, you’re in trouble. To paraphrase the old saying, stories about bad service are half way round the world before good service has got its boots on. Not only is the world changing, it is spawning a lot of hungry competitors: if you’re not innovating and improving, then someone else will be, and they’ll be telling your customers.

6.We all need friends

Clearly I haven’t learnt to count, but where else can I finish? Over the last seven years it has been my privilege to listen to some outstanding business advice from the members of TAB York. It’s been advice which has transformed businesses, transformed lives and – on at least one occasion – saved a marriage. We all need friends and – in business – you will never find better friends than your colleagues round a TAB boardroom table. As the man said, we all need a little help