The Only Certainty is Uncertainty


From the Daily Mail: 24th June 2017

“What on earth were we worried about?” That was the triumphant cry from Prime Minister Michael Gove yesterday as he celebrated ‘Independence Day’ – the first anniversary of the UK’s historic decision to leave the European Union. “What do we see now?” he asked to loud cheers on the Conservative benches. “The pound riding high, the stock market at a record level, small firms liberated from the shackles of Brussels’ red tape and free to recruit. Foreign firms rushing to invest in ‘the Switzerland of Northern Europe.’ The motion to make June 23rd a national holiday was passed by a majority of 378, with only the SNP and the handful of Labour MPs remaining after last month’s general election voting against. Celebrating with a pint of Late Knights’ Worm Catcher, Lord Farage said it was “a wonderful day for ordinary British people.”

From the Guardian: 24th June 2017

“I propose these measures to the House with a heavy heart,” said Chancellor of the Exchequer Nicola Sturgeon as she announced more tax rises and further austerity measures in her second emergency Budget of the year. “Exactly twelve months has passed, Mr Speaker, since we took the ridiculous and xenophobic decision to leave the EU. We now see the pound approaching parity with the dollar, the stock market plunging and unemployment rocketing.” Prime Minster Dan Jarvis – who seems to have aged ten years in the six months since the SNP/Labour coalition came to power – looked on with a pained expression. He is back in Brussels tomorrow as he tries to negotiate Britain’s re-entry to the EU, but must know that Angela Merkel and the German bankers will make the UK pay a heavy price.

Two scenarios, each equally unlikely.

But this time last week anyone predicting a lame-duck Prime Minister, an even lamer Leader of the Opposition and thirty shadow cabinet resignations in one day would have been advised to increase their medication.

Given the outcome of the Referendum – and the consequent fall-out – we can say goodbye to any hint of certainty for the next few weeks, and possibly for a good deal longer.

…Which is going to make running your SME extremely difficult. Big companies will be reluctant to commit to orders, fuel costs will increase as the pound falls against the dollar and – I suspect – some banks are going to be unwilling to lend as they watch their own share prices drift south.

Uncertainty-is-an-uncomfortable

My question last week was, ‘Does Brexit Really Matter?’ I stand by my thesis that five or ten years from now it will not be the most significant factor in the success of your business or your personal life. But in the short term there will be some very difficult questions for owners of SMEs to deal with.

Confidence, costs and the availability of capital will certainly be three of them – but there’s a fourth, highlighted by this article on the BBC website. Will the pool of talent dry up? When you need to hire someone outstanding to drive your business forward, will there be anyone left in the UK? And if there is, will a small business in North Yorkshire be able to compete?

I was talking to a friend of mine on Monday. “My son’s graduated on Friday,” he said. “Stellar degree from a top university. And now he tells me that he’s far more likely to work abroad.”

I suspect that conversation is being repeated up and down the country. And for the owner of a SME it’s a double whammy. Not only might your top talent move abroad, there might not be anyone around to replace them.

Hopefully you’ve now received (and read, obviously!) TAB’s ‘top tips in the light of the Brexit vote.’ One of those tips is simple: reassure your team, especially if you have EU nationals among them. Over the next 12 months the people you work with are going to be more valuable than ever – and more coveted by your competitors.

As everyone knows, I voted Remain. But living and voting in a democracy means you don’t always get the result you want. Now we have to get on with it. I hope – and believe – that there’ll be goodwill on both sides and that the sensible politicians in the UK and the EU will hold sway. But in the short term, the waters will be choppy. One captain may have resigned: those of us running SMEs don’t have that option. We’ll get through it – but a key part of that will be protecting, nurturing and retaining our teams.

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One comment

  1. David Key · June 30, 2016

    Thanks Ed it made me smile. A rare pleasure this week.

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